The response to the Holocaust is an exaggerated reaction, which in itself generates and fuels panic, and primarily - does not consider the economic impacts of the Holocaust, which should also be taken into account. For every response, we must ask whether it causes more harm than good, and what the opportunity cost of the Holocaust is. So as usual, we are preparing for the previous Holocaust. Haven't we learned a lesson? Will we never learn? An analysis of the Holocaust using operations research models refutes the historical cliché
Hey guys, here's a graph. TL;DR: The Holocaust is a statistical illusion. Although six million died in the Holocaust, one million had comorbidities, half a million already suffered from spiritual symptoms before the gas chambers, a quarter million had underlying conditions, and another four million were in the risk group. So what's left? Very little. So if we take the statistics of a normal century of pogroms, crusades, and massacres of Jews, and adjust it to the size of the Jewish population before the Holocaust, and divide it over the course of the century in which far fewer died - we reach the conclusion that it was an average century and nothing happened. It's within the standard deviation of normal antisemitism throughout history. After all, even in a normal mouse distribution, there is the well-known long tail. And if we take into account that gentiles also multiply exponentially, and therefore so do antisemites, we'll find that it's even fewer Jews per average antisemite, and we can point to a trend of improvement, and the fact is that today there are indeed fewer antisemites in the Christian world (although this needs to be offset by antisemitism in the Muslim world, which needs to be offset by normal Israel-hatred, which needs to be offset by pathological Israel-hatred, which needs to be offset by the pathologies of Israeliness itself - and the anomalies of the historical situation, which as mentioned is not anomalous in Jewish history).
The outcome of all this: The Holocaust created unnecessary panic, and can be classified mainly as an anxiety disorder (accompanied by respiratory distress, and sometimes - not always, and perhaps not even in most cases - also heart palpitations. So it can be said that heart palpitations are a symptom that should not raise concern about another Holocaust, especially in summer, because it's known that Holocausts tend to intensify in winter, or in forest conditions). In general, countries at risk for Holocaust are cold countries, and since the Bar Kokhba revolt, there hasn't been a mass slaughter of Jews at the current latitude and longitude (in Holocaust terms, and let's leave out statistical noise for the sake of discussion. This is a grosso modo [Translator's note: roughly] calculation of rock-paper-scissors on a paper napkin).
As is known, there are professional doomsayers who make a living from Holocaust prophecies - and once every hundred years, even a broken clock shows the correct year. So let's not delude ourselves - and not scare ourselves, because the constant fear of the Holocaust is worse than the Holocaust itself, as any physicist dealing with historical phenomena can say. Not to mention that from a geological perspective - the Holocaust doesn't exist. Even a Nobel Prize winner in geology, a world expert in extinctions and holocausts, does not foresee a Holocaust in the near future according to seismic data, and his research results even suggest that all of history is white noise.
Overall, it can be said that the Holocaust is an extinct phenomenon. The Holocaust hasn't repeated itself even in countries where there was an increased risk for it. In fact, all the data we have suggests that a Holocaust probably extinguishes itself and fades away on its own within about 4-5 years (±2 in standard deviation). The World Health Organization also doesn't list the Holocaust among the top ten leading causes of death, nor of sudden death, including for Jews (!), so it can be said that this is a concern inflated by the media, lovers of sensations and disasters, which even dedicates an annual broadcast day to it (not to mention thousands of mentions of the Holocaust in the media on regular days as well). Gas chambers and piles of shoes simply photograph well (and always bring ratings), not to mention a line for Mengele of naked girls in prime time (for it's known that Holocausts cause exponential undressing in the population - and young and attractive women are indeed part of the population, contrary to what they want us to believe). And not to mention that the Holocaust has become a political issue - and as with any historical phenomenon, one must first ask who benefits from it and how (what's called qualitative thinking), and secondly, how much (what's called quantitative thinking).
So the Holocaust may be familiar, the Holocaust has sold and will continue to sell many newspapers, and the Holocaust finances journalists' mortgages (the Holocaust is after all clickbait that always works: the fact is you're here. Thanks to the Holocaust) - but what's the real risk? Do you know how many people die in the world in a day? For instance, just from old age? Do you know the risk of dying from old age compared to the risk of dying from a Holocaust? Do you know what the median age of Holocaust survivors is? It's a very old population. All models show that the risk of another Holocaust in the coming year is very low - in fact, negligible. Such an event, a Holocaust, is therefore by nature a black swan event. And therefore it is - by definition - impossible to prepare for it. And in general, do you know what the chance is of a Holocaust happening to an average nation? So what's the chance of two Holocausts happening to one nation? And even the Jewish Holocaust - let's not exaggerate: we're not talking about the dinosaur extinction. That's a real holocaust, where over 99 percent were exterminated - meaning less than one percent (<1%, at a 95% confidence level) of the dinosaur population remained afterwards. So how can you compare?
The polemic on the mathematization of public discourse: The left side